Profiling, Forecasting, and DDQ
PGW’s new transportation management software features sophisticated profiling and forecasting capabilities. A profile of gas usage tied to historic weather and the predicted daily weather for several future days will be combined to forecast a firm pool’s probable gas usage on the next gas day and for approximately three subsequent days. Forecasts will be prepared and published every weekday, except holidays.
PGW will profile the approximately 30,000 commercial and industrial monthly-metered service points individually, based on usage history. Customers without adequate usage history will default to a rate / class profile. Residential customers will not be profiled individually; all residential customers will default to class-average profiles.
In simple terms, a profile is the result of combining a mathematical factor for the customer’s historic gas usage per heating degree day with the customer’s average daily baseload (gas used for non-heating purposes). By applying profiles to predicted weather and aggregating results at the pool level, the system can forecast pool daily usage with considerable accuracy. There is no charge to the supplier for forecasting services.
Daily Delivery Quantity
A pool’s forecast will determine its DDQ or Daily Delivery Quantity. PGW will prepare this figure and publish it to the EBB several days in advance of the beginning of a calendar month. The DDQ will be adjusted throughout the month based on the latest forecast of the pool’s needs.
DDQ’s will be published to the EBB as early as possible every work-day morning, to facilitate timely nomination of the quantity of gas to be delivered on the following gas day(s).